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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

would have to spend 5.4 percent of GNP and the Asian group 4.3 percent.* Each case would represent substantial increases over the actual expenditures in recent years,"'' although as mentioned earlier, the share of the GNP going to education has been moving up in all three regions. However, even these high figures may understate the problem, because it was assumed that various kinds of economy-producing innovations and adjustments would keep unit costs from rising to any extent.?
The UNESCO conferences also looked beyond 1970 to set longer-term goals for enrollment. For example, the Asian countries adopted the goal of universal primary education, and although target dates were not specified, envisaged that most countries could reach this goal before 1980. Very few countries, however, have developed detailed long-term educational plans although they commonly mention certain long-term targets. For example, Pakistan aims to provide universal primary education of 5 years' duration by 1980 (the target date having been 1975 in earlier documents) and to reduce the wastefully high dropout rate in the early grades. Afghanistan, one of the least advanced countries educationally in the region, aims to reach a 50 percent enrollment rate by 1980. Burma hopes to be able to enforce compulsory education by 1970. In Iran, the 20-year plan (1963-83) aims at providing free and compulsory education for the age group 7 to 13. The national plans typically envisage a vigorous expansion of teacher training, often including in-service training, to meet future needs (5, pp. 22-23).
In setting up these ambitious targets, not all the countries are as courageous as the Indian Education Commission of 1966, which not only proposed large enrollment increases and quality improvements by 1985 but spelled oul their financial implications as well. These were formidable enough to be alarming: on the optimistic assumption that India's economy will grow at 6 percent annually throughout this period, educational expenditures will have to expand from 2.9 percent of GNP in 1965 to 6 percent by 1985.
DEMOGRAPHIC OBSTACLES TO THE ATTAINMENT OF EDUCATIONAL GOALS
Official educational goals typically aim to expand the coverage of the school system and to improve its quality so that it may better meet the
These estimates were predicated on the assumption of an economic growth rate of 5 percent per annum in Latin America and Asia and 4.4 percent in Africa. Available evidence indicates that actual growth in Latin America has averaged 4.8 percent per annum during the 1960-67 period, and growth rates in south Asia and Africa have also been below 5 percent.
tpor a statistical analysis, see (19).
•!:The exceptions were the assumption of moderate rises for primary education in
A £•   •__     ___,1   r— -  M»:.~*» ..« r   ,^**r1  liirrVir»i- n A 11 r»n t 1 r\ n   itl    A eintical evidence is contained in (17, 18).n education (2). They are, however, subject to a variety of weaknesses, not the least of which is that the ratio of private expenditure to public expenditure on education varies between countries. There is unfortunately a dearth of intercountry comparative information on private expenditures on education.al-urban migration, in the multilingual character of the society, in the existence of polygamy, and